Development of EU-China Relations: Expert Opinions and Forecasts, Risks and Opportunities for Russia

On November 30, 2021 the online Situation Analysis organized by the Center of Situation Analysis of the IMEMO RAS and devoted to the range of problems of the European Union and China relations to date took place. The major factors affecting the development of these relations were identified and analyzed, including the position of the US and the global economic and political trends. The experts participating in the Situation Analysis came to a conclusion that there is a transition of the EU-China relations into the phase of a more rigid and pragmatic interaction, limited by the parties' interests and by mutual wariness and lack of trust. The situation is further aggravated by the US strategic orientation towards preventing China from taking leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and the world. At the same time, the EU strategy towards China will likely be a compromise, taking into account the interests of the Member States. Expansion of the EU practice of sanctions pressure on China can also be expected. For Russia, the main challenge would be to keep a balance in its relations with the EU and the rising partner China. The expert analysis and the publication's conclusions can be also useful as a basis for the verification of forecasting studies. The experts of the Center of Situation Analysis, Center of Asia Pacific Studies, Center of North American Studies, Center of European Studies, Department of European Political Studies, Center of Development and Modernization Studies and the Laboratory 'Center of the Middle East Studies' of the IMEMO took part in the discussion and presented their notes that formed the basis of this publication: V.G. Baranovsky, O.V. Bogaevskaya,  L.S. Vartazarova, K.R. Voda, K.A. Gemueva, A.A. Davydov, I.V. Danilin, E.A. Desiatsky, S.S. Dmitriev, V.Yu. Zhuravleva, I.E. Ibragimov, Yu.D. Kvashnin, E.V. Kirichenko, S.A. Kislitsyn, I. Ja. Kobrinskaya, A.V. Lomanov, S.A. Lukonin, V.V. Mikheev, M.V. Sadovnikova, N.Yu. Surkov, P.P. Timofeev, S.V. Utkin, A.N. Fedorovskiy, B.E. Frumkin, Е.S.Khesin, V.G. Shvydko. The review of the Situation Analysis was prepared by Ludmila S. Vartazarova, Doct. Sci. (Econ.), Chief Researcher of the Group of Analysis of the Current Economic Problems of the IMEMO RAS (vls38@mail.ru, ORCID: 0000-0001-7804-1169) and Irina Ya. Kobrinskaya, Cand. Sci. (Hist.), Head of the Center of Situational Analysis, IMEMO RAS. (psifoundation@imemo.ru, ORCID: 0000-0002-4419-0681).