Mapping Ethnopolitical Conflictivity: Prognostic Potential and Methodological Limitations
DOI: 10.20542/afij-2023-4-13-25
EDN: RMHDLR
© Irina S. SEMENENKO, Irina L. PROKHORENKO, Alexey A. DAVYDOV, 2023
Received 26.06.2023.
Revised 15.10.2023.
Accepted 25.12.2023.
Irina S. SEMENENKO (semenenko@imemo.ru), ORCID: 0000-0003-2529-9283,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation.
Irina L. PROKHORENKO (irinapr@imemo.ru), ORCID: 0000-0002-8090-7934,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation.
Alexey A. DAVYDOV (adavydov@imemo.ru), ORCID: 0000-0002-8899-8746,
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation.
The article presents a critical analysis of scientific and practical results of using the mapping method and an analysis of the possibilities created by an analytical assessment model of ethnopolitical conflictivity potential in studying ethnopolitical conflicts in various countries and regions of the world. These approaches are an integral part of the identity research agenda promoted at IMEMO and implemented in the development of the Ethnopolitical Conflict Monitor, a map and a computer application for comparatively analyzing in dynamic and predicting areas of ethnopolitical conflictivity. The Monitor was put together as a result of the 2015-2017 Russian Science Foundation project ‘Regulating Interethnic Relations and Managing Ethnic and Social Conflicts in the Contemporary World: The Potential of Civiс Identity (Comparative Political Analysis)’ executed at IMEMO. Ethnopolitical Conflictivity Monitor as a science project involves a continuous monitoring of conflicts with an ethnic component, where identity serves as a non-material resource of each conflicting side and identity politics is a crucial tool in regulating such conflicts. This type of monitoring is performed with the help of scientists from many IMEMO structures, specialists on the analyzed countries and regions. The work on the Monitor involves an expert selection of conflicts in countries and regions of the world, typology of confrontations in accordance with the formulated classification, analysis and classifying of regulation practices, especially those with identity politics as a regulation tool, estimation of the practices in correlation with the current state of affairs and regulation prospects. Ethnopolitical Conflict Monitor has an evident practical significance. It can help in developing guidelines on interethnic tension mitigation and and promoting civic solidarity important for Russia's social and political development.
Keywords
About the authors:
Irina S. SEMENENKO, Doct. Sci. (Polit. Sci.), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of Centre for Comparative Socioeconomic and Political Studies, Deputy Director for Scientific Work.
Irina L. PROKHORENKO, Doct. Sci. (Polit. Sci.), Head of the Sector, Sector for International Organizations and Global Political Governance, Department for International Political Problems.
Alexey A. DAVYDOV, Cand. Sci. (Polit. Sci.), Senior Researcher, Sector for US Foreign and Domestic Policy, Center for North American Studies.
Authors’ contribution: Semenenko I.S. – general idea and concept, preparation of the first draft of the manuscript; Prokhorenko I.L. – preparation of the final draft of the manuscript, design of general information, metadata and resources; Davydov A.A. – participation in text writing, preparation of evaluations, tables and images.
Competing interests: no potential competing financial or non-financial interest was reported by the authors.
Funding: the authors declare no external funding.
Acknowledgements: the authors express their gratitude to all the participants of the Ethnopolitical Conflict Monitor science project, IMEMO researchers.
For citation:
Semenenko I., Prokhorenko I., Davydov A. Mapping Ethnopolitical Conflictivity: Prognostic Potential and Methodological Limitations. Analysis & Forecasting. IMEMO Journal, 2023, no 4, pp. 13-25. https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2023-4-13-25
