‘Forecasting is a highly challenging scientific objective’

We are privileged to open the first issue of our journal with an interview by the President of IMEMO, Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Dynkin. In a conversation with the journal’s Editor-in-Chief Dr. Irina Prokhorenko he explains the difference between forecasting studies and futurology and provides an overview of the IMEMO extensive experience in forecasting research.

The institute has been working on the social and economic forecasting theoretical aspects, methodology and techniques as well as on specific applied forecasting analytical studies since 1960s. In the 1960s and 1970s there was a wave of interest towards economic, scientific and technological and international political forecasting worldwide. A lot of remarkable, sometimes contradictory works presenting different models of global development came out. A report by the Club of Rome became one of the most famous publications of this kind. IMEMO was also developing its own approaches towards forecasting and was involved in the long-term strategic planning, though most of this work was classified.

Since that time a lot has changed. The first open IMEMO forecast published in 2001 was mainly focusing on economy, but later works are also exploring political, military and social problems. IMEMO reports ‘The World at the Turn of the Millennium’, ‘Strategic Global Outlook 2030’ and ‘The World of 2035. Global Forecast’ are recognized throughout the world and have been translated into English, Korean and Chinese.

In the interview Academician Dynkin also discusses the role of verification of scientific forecasting, the data used for analyzing trends and making projections as well as IMEMO own know-how and expertise in this field.